Day 68 of 100 Days of AI

Today was AI reading day. The question to explore: “When will AI systems be able to do all jobs better than humans?”

Initially, I was unsure how to approach this question. However, findings from a comprehensive survey of 2,778 AI experts from the top AI journals and conferences provide a good start.

These experts estimate that if AI progress continues, most human work has a greater than 50% chance of being automated within the next 10 years.

The figure below from the survey shows the expected automation dates for various tasks, occupations, and two human-level performance measures. Each circle or square marks the year with a 50% chance of automation, while the intervals show the 25% to 75% probability range.

The more surprising element of the survey was how the AI experts revised their estimates in 2023 compared to 2022. The full automation of labour was initially predicted to have a 50% chance of happening by 2164 (140 years from now.) But given recent AI developments, the 2023 survey estimated a date that is almost 50 years sooner — 2116 (92 years from now.) Here’s a chart that breaks down those revisions.

I suspect the next version of this survey will revise these dates to be even sooner. Are we really ready for mass automation and massively more capable AI systems? I don’t think so, and that raises the urgency with which AI safety work has to be done.